Commodity Trading Approach

Our commodity trading approach is centered on identifying opportunities within commodities characterized by high production concentration in specific geographic regions. This strategy is built upon a proactive and nimble approach, where we patiently await catalytic events that drive significant changes in production within these commodities. These events primarily fall into two categories: political developments or catastrophic weather events. In this report, we will elaborate on the key elements of our investment process, highlighting its proactive nature and the importance of supply chain understanding.

Commodities with Regional Production Concentration

Our investment journey begins with rigorous research and analysis to pinpoint commodities with a high degree of production concentration within specific geographic regions. This concentration often makes them vulnerable to external factors that can disrupt the supply chain. Factors we consider include geographical and geopolitical risks, market dynamics, and historical production data.

Patiently Awaiting Catalytic Events

Once we’ve identified target commodities, we adopt a patient approach rather than chasing short-term trends. We understand that the most significant opportunities often arise when external events trigger abrupt shifts in production patterns. These events include:

Political Developments: Changes in government policies, trade agreements, or regulations that profoundly impact production and distribution. We closely monitor global political dynamics to exploit opportunities as they arise.

Catastrophic Weather Events: Immediate impacts on production due to weather-related disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, or floods. Our team closely tracks weather forecasts and historical data to anticipate and respond effectively.

Real-Time Monitoring and Swift Action

Our commitment to staying well-informed and proactive sets us apart. We maintain constant vigilance over news sources and market developments, allowing us to react swiftly to emerging events. Our advantage lies in our in-depth knowledge of commodities’ supply chains, gained through meticulous research and ongoing monitoring.

Understanding the intricacies of a commodity’s supply chain is pivotal to our success. By comprehensively mapping out production, transportation, and distribution processes, we are better equipped to assess vulnerabilities and potential choke points. This knowledge empowers us to respond rapidly when supply disruptions occur, ensuring our investments are well-positioned to capitalize on market shifts.

Examples of Potential Plays

Palm Oil: Concentrated production in Malaysia and Indonesia, susceptible to political and environmental factors.

Cocoa: Dominated by Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, facing potential disruptions from security issues and cross-border trading challenges.

Coffee: Brazil, the largest producer, vulnerable to climate change-related weather pattern shifts.

Orange Juice: Prone to price volatility due to weather events and diseases, with Brazil as a major producer.

Phosphates: Morocco controls a significant share of global phosphate rock reserves and production, impacting fertilizers.

Our investment process prioritizes discipline, supply chain understanding, and swift action. By identifying commodities with high regional production concentration and anticipating catalytic events, we aim to achieve favorable risk-adjusted returns. This strategy aligns with our commitment to proactively navigate the complexities of the commodities market, positioning us to seize opportunities as they materialize.

Vincent Haliburton

Chief Investment Officer at Haliburton Capital Group & CEO at Knowit Owlz.

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